(Cross-posted from Kansas Jackass
Two bits of news out of the Republican Primary for the United States Senate seat Sam Brownback is vacating in 2010.
First, Congressman Todd Tiahrt announced the formation of his campaign steering committee. It includes such Republican notables as State Representatives Kasha Kelly, Lance Kinzer, and Peggy Mast, along with former Speaker of the Kansas House Doug Mays, and Sharon Meissner, who we surmise is the wife of twice-failed Kansas State Board of Education candidate Dr. Robert Meissner.
Lovely, right? I do appreciate they sent the press release directly to the blog, though.
In the news that actually matters, the Washington Post is today reporting a poll commissioned for the campaign of Congressman Jerry Moran includes much better news for him than it does good ol’ Todder.
Rep. Jerry Moran starts as the frontrunner for the GOP Senate nod in Kansas, according to new polling done for his campaign. Moran, who has held the massive central-western 1st district since 1996, holds a 41 percent to 25 percent edge over fellow Rep. Todd Tiahrt in a poll conducted by Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies.
“While it is still very early in the primary campaign, it is currently a lot better to be Jerry Moran than it is to be Todd Tiahrt,” Bolger wrote in the polling memo.
I’m sure people will read that and scream, “But it was a internal poll, so it’s just bullshit.” While I’m sure campaign-released polls always only include selective information (like, for instance, we bet Moran isn’t telling anyone who he matches up against Gov. Kathleen Sebelius…), just because it’s an internal poll doesn’t immediately make it invalid. A polling firm won’t get much work if their poll are routinely proven wrong in the press.
So, there you go- while Tiahrt’s busy naming his committee, Moran’s busy winning the election. Long way ’til August 2010, but the pollster is right- I’d much rather be Jerry Moran today.
Internals may often by inflated by a few points, but if the pollster is with his/her salt, then they won’t be off by much. It sucks to think you’re up twenty only to find it’s only two and you’re about to lose the race. That said, this is an unfortunate result. Fratricidal Kansas GOP primaries have become the norm, but the crazy usually wins. When they do, we win. When they don’t, we get…Lynn Jenkins in Nancy Boyda’s seat.
Does anyone have a feel for which would be the harder candidate to be for Sebelius should she get in this race? Both guys records look like they’re rock solid wingers.
for two reasons:
1. Jim Moran is actually one of the more moderate and sane Kansas Republicans, and in he house he was overall one of the more liberal Republicans. Todd Tiahert is a solid conservative, an arch-conservative. So, this gives a less bad worst-case scenario, Moran as Senator.
2. Moran is actually a weaker opponent for Sebelius should she decide to run, (and she should, everythings already working for her; an expensive and divisive Republican primary between moderate and conservative), because he hails from the mostly rural western part of the state, the solidly Republican areas that never go Democratic regardless. Tiahert is from the crucial population center of Witchita, the states largest city. Sebelius has managed to win twice by winning Witchita, Topeka, Lawrence, and Kansas city and their suburbs while holding Republican margins down in the rural areas. Moran is the ideal candidate we want running against her.
Secretary? After this most recent attempt on obstructionism by the Repub leadership on the Cabinet nominees and the stimulus, I’d go long and try to grab Olympia Snowe.